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Originally posted by Article:
One such question for Aaron was about the Modern format that was introduced during the Community Cup and whether or not it was going to be coming to sanctioned play anytime soon. Aaron shrugged and went on the record and say that Modern would be a sanctioned format in the very near future—something that sent a ripple through the Magic social network and would have been one of the highlights of the panel if not for the next person to get a bonus gift from the panel.

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Remember how Zendikar was speculated to be Vampires friendly and M10's Vampire N increased from $2 to $10+? Turned out Zendikar really had Vampires. There are a few other incidents, though I cannot recall them right of my mind.

Looking at the past trend, and how Shockland prices had increased, I will say, yes, there will be a Modern Format.

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Originally posted by MTDetermine:
In the last 1-2 years, I have noticed a trend where speculation + subsequent rise in affected cards = Speculation Came TRUE later on.

Remember how Zendikar was speculated to be Vampires friendly and M10's Vampire N increased from $2 to $10+? Turned out Zendikar really had Vampires. There are a few other incidents, though I cannot recall them right of my mind.

Looking at the past trend, and how Shockland prices had increased, I will say, yes, there will be a Modern Format.

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Or you could, y'know, draw the same conclusion from Aaron forsythe flat-out stating that modern will become a format instead of using laughably specious reasoning like "if it is speculated, it is likely to come true". Correlation does not imply causation.

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Originally posted by Bugger:
Or you could, y'know, draw the same conclusion from Aaron forsythe flat-out stating that modern will become a format instead of using laughably specious reasoning like "if it is speculated, it is likely to come true". Correlation does not imply causation.

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I am just sharing my view in response to the threadstarter's query. I welcome you to approach from a constructive angle by giving your view.

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Originally posted by MTDetermine:
I am just sharing my view in response to the threadstarter's query. I welcome you to approach from a constructive angle by giving your view.

No need to type up a response simply to poke at my reply. English is not my native language. No surprise if I make some errors when communicating in English.

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Bugger's point is unrelated to your command of English, which is just fine. Rather, it's the reasoning exhibited in your post that is unsound. The price of singles is not something controlled by WotC, WotC employees, or people 'in the know' about future sets, and so you cannot draw appropriate conclusions about future sets: the price of cards is entirely unrelated to the actual content of future sets, although it is often tied to speculated content.

When certain cards increase in price at the same time as rumours involving them abound, that's not because the rumours are true and the cards are somehow trying to tell us. The cards increase in value because of the rumours, which drive players to purchase those cards in anticipation of their increased prices; so, the price of the cards is related to the presence of rumours, but not to their veracity.

__________________
"I have heard the mermaids singing, each to each. I do not think they will sing to me." -T.S. Eliot

RIP Ari

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Originally posted by Goaswerfraiejen:
Bugger's point is unrelated to your command of English, which is just fine. Rather, it's the reasoning exhibited in your post that is unsound. The price of singles is not something controlled by WotC, WotC employees, or people 'in the know' about future sets, and so you cannot draw appropriate conclusions about future sets: the price of cards is entirely unrelated to the actual content of future sets, although it is often tied to speculated content.

When certain cards increase in price at the same time as rumours involving them abound, that's not because the rumours are true and the cards are somehow trying to tell us. The cards increase in value because of the rumours, which drive players to purchase those cards in anticipation of their increased prices; so, the price of the cards is related to the presence of rumours, but not to their veracity.

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Thanks for the explanation, understand it better now.

What I was trying to express is that, for the last 1-2 years, the price appreciation brought about by the rumour mills have often proved to be accurate. For example, in 2009, there were some rumours on Shocklands being in M10, and "Overextended" speculation in 2010. However, both of these rumours were not accompanied by price increases and were found to be false.

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Originally posted by MTDetermine:
Thanks for the explanation, understand it better now.

What I was trying to express is that, for the last 1-2 years, the price appreciation brought about by the rumour mills have often proved to be accurate. For example, in 2009, there were some rumours on Shocklands being in M10, and "Overextended" speculation in 2010. However, both of these rumours were not accompanied by price increases and were found to be false.

On the other hand, rumours accompanied by price appreciation often proved to be true. Call me cynical if you want. I believe this is likely due to "insider trading" by people who had access to such news. Afterall, MTG insider trading is unlikely to be illegal (though u may break WOTC ethics guidelines if you are a WOTC employees).

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And what you're forgetting is that unlike Modern format, the rumors of overextended a year ago and speculation that the shocklands were in M10 never received a single shred of proof at all. Contrast that with the current price spike that began shortly after Comic Con, wherein Aaron Forsythe explicitly confirmed Modern's impending creation. Your timeline for these events seem to be waaaaay off.

And yes, I'll happily and proudly scorn your conspiracy theories, because like all conspiracy theories it is unfounded and incorrect.

On the bright side, I made a pretty nice profit off the upswing on my spare shocklands

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Originally posted by -PoX-:
Wasn't this announced months ago?

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It was announced as a format at the community cup and for the community cup only. Players speculated that it would be a real format down the road. It was confirmed at SDCC that it will be a real format.

Will it become sanctioned just because we play?
Will it become sanctioned just because we pay more for shock lands?

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Originally posted by caquaa:
Guess my biggest concern is what will stay on the banned list and what will be removed. Hypergenesis? Stoneforge?

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Yeah, this will be interesting. I thought I remember reading on the coverage that the Hypergenesis decks were ridiculously good during the cup.

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Originally posted by mm1983:
I don't know about Modern format being official yet but if/when it does become official then the current Extended will officially be a dead format.

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Originally posted by Kryne:
Holy crap, the official banned list was released for Pro tour Philly, which has been changed to modern. Apparently they don't like having good cards played. I'm surprised bob made it through.
ban list

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Why don't they reprint FoW already? They won't shut up about how important it is for Legacy all the while banning every fast deck anyway just like they did now for modern.

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Originally posted by Kryne:
Holy crap, the official banned list was released for Pro tour Philly, which has been changed to modern. Apparently they don't like having good cards played. I'm surprised bob made it through.
ban list

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Originally posted by gaeacradle:
The card that I'm most surprised that they didn't ban was Aether Vial. This card will make Zoo and Merfolk the premier aggro decks in the format.

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