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Author Topic:   Who buys Useas for 3k each (Dealers Do)
Nicksmagic
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posted September 18, 2014 08:50 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Nicksmagic Click Here to Email Nicksmagic Send a private message to Nicksmagic Click to send Nicksmagic an Instant MessageVisit Nicksmagic's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Nicksmagic's Have/Want ListView Nicksmagic's Have/Want List
I first came here to MOTL last year when a NM Alpha Mox Sapphire was $900 and a NM Alpha Lotus was $6k. I watched a playset of Alpha Trops go for around 3k.

Things have changed.

In February I got an offer for my HP Alpha Lotus of $3k from a dealer at a GP but held onto it because I simply did not need any money. This July I was offered $5k. Again, I was actually looking to spend over $5000 that I had on cards to complete a nice Old School deck. I ended up coming home with most of the money. No one would even budge on the prices because they (the dealers) had paid as much or more than Ebay listed prices so that they could re-sell them. I have been beaten on Ebay now more than a handful of times by dealers. I was offering nearly the going rate (450 for HP beta plateau for example).

After joining the High End page it occurred to me that a number of these Beta Duals are being passed around like a hot potato. It is very similar to the housing market in '07. Everyone is in a hurry to "buy in" so that they can flip the cards.

My real question as a person who is a true "out" for dealers: Who is buying these cards? I mean the average guy like me (edited for not adding any value to the post) who has money to spare on hobbying is likely to realize that 4k for a playset of trops is not a very good deal. I mean neither from an investment angle nor from a hobbying angle. For the price it would cost me to complete this deck (8k currently) I could do a whole lot of other hobbies.

Again, I think that these cards have gotten to the point in value where they have missed their intended audience. How many people want graded sets that don't have them yet? This all goes to who is actually buying playsets for Beta Trops for 4k? Even Old School players are selling out at this point. The market is flooded with Beta cards right now. And no one will take offers on them. You can hardly even use Ebay as a reasonable price guide because dealers are outbidding even the collectors for these cards.

As a side note for my question: It started when I offered a seller on ebay named "magiccardsneverdevalue" a full $240 for his playset of NM Foil 7th Lord of Atlantis. He denied me of course because everyone else who also was NOT selling theirs has them at 70 a pop. A week later he offers to sell them to me for $240 as he "needs the money". I passed on the offer if anything due to the irony. That playset is there for a mere $250 at the moment! (While supplies last...) Do you all really think that magic cards never devalue?


[Edited 1 times, lastly by Nicksmagic on September 19, 2014]

 
chaos021
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posted September 18, 2014 09:24 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for chaos021 Click Here to Email chaos021 Send a private message to chaos021 Click to send chaos021 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View chaos021's Have/Want ListView chaos021's Have/Want List
Was there a point to this?

__________________
"Message to women worldwide: Girls....we're stupid. We don't like games. We don't know games. We can't read minds. Say it like you mean or STFU." -rockondon

My Sale Thread

 
oneofchaos
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posted September 18, 2014 11:05 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for oneofchaos Click Here to Email oneofchaos Send a private message to oneofchaos Click to send oneofchaos an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Nicksmagic:

My real question as a person who is a true "out" for dealers: Who is buying these cards? I mean the average guy like me ($160k per year income) who has money to spare on hobbying is likely to realize that 4k for a playset of trops is not a very good deal. I mean neither from an investment angle nor from a hobbying angle. For the price it would cost me to complete this deck (8k currently) I could do a whole lot of other hobbies.


You seriously only make 160k per year? What are you a peasant?

 
Child of Gaea
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posted September 19, 2014 05:06 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Child of Gaea Click Here to Email Child of Gaea Send a private message to Child of Gaea Click to send Child of Gaea an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Child of Gaea's Have/Want ListView Child of Gaea's Have/Want List
Right now, there are people in dorm rooms playing mtg that are future six-figure salary earners. They will also then have the disposable income you speak of. They will want to buy these cards. The cycle continues.

I have a bigger salary ***** then you, but I choose to keep this casual and fun. I trade for a $2 card the same way I would trade a $1k. I am not trying to fill a void in my life with cardboard. I am however becoming more and more of a collector lately and find myself dedicating more and more money. I also am investing more in the markets and different entrepreneurial opportunities. In so many cases if one would have bought these cards even a couple years ago they would have outperformed 99% of any market in the world.

To me its all what you are in it for and your motivations. As for intended audience, my opinion is, it is a business, so the intended audience is someone who will spend money and they have obviously been doing just fine at that. Of course these can devalue, but I just dont see how at this point. I'm sure someone much smarter than me has an opinion as well...

 
mm1983
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posted September 19, 2014 05:25 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for mm1983 Click Here to Email mm1983 Send a private message to mm1983 Click to send mm1983 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View mm1983's Have/Want ListView mm1983's Have/Want List
I like to blow money on this game just like anyone else who has money to blow on this game but for play purposes buying into Beta and Alpha is just going way overboard. My Revised Underground Sea does the same thing as your Alpha/Beta Underground Sea for 1/10 of the price. Many people would say the same about foil to non foil. For play purposes foil English is about as far as I will go on dumping money into the game. Going as far as to get Japanese, Russian, or Korean foil is just strictly an "investment".

I usually want the cheapest copy of something that I can get but I will also never pass up on what I deem to be a great deal at the time. If I ever go for power 9 it will be any that are from Unlimited and I have a set of 40 duals plus a few extras so I am now looking to get 1 of each in FBB. When you are talking sets like Legends, Antiquities, and Arabian Nights those sets only have 1 printing of a high end card so you have no choice but to get it from those sets at whatever the going price is at the time.

 
hilikuS
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posted September 19, 2014 06:53 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for hilikuS Click Here to Email hilikuS Send a private message to hilikuS Click to send hilikuS an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
It makes sense what you're saying, but I think your sample is skewed. That high end Facebook page is just a ton of dealers, or people like me who buy and sell. There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of actual "buyers" on there. Your other example is dealers at a GP.

My argument is that if these dealers are buying them for close to Ebay, they expect to move them. Buy prices for dealers dictate how quickly a card can move. So chances are if they're paying basically market value, they have buyers for it or at least expect to.

I don't know who exactly would buy such expensive stuff, but I'm sure there are many people with half as much disposable income as yourself looking to build their collection.

As far as that high end Beta and Alpha stuff not being a good investment, you kind of contradicted that in your first sentence. When you first got here you your stuff wasn't worth nearly as much as it is now. In one year you made $2 grand on your Lotus. That seems like a good ROI to me.

[Edited 1 times, lastly by hilikuS on September 19, 2014]

 
oldschool
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posted September 19, 2014 07:05 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for oldschool Click Here to Email oldschool Send a private message to oldschool Click to send oldschool an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
1) tons of alpha / beta around. Really? Went to starcity games and even after jacking their prices they can't get any stock in. The had zero black lotuses for sale until recently. They needed to jack their price for unlimited to 4k just to have someone sell one to them. They can't get any alpha or beta in stock ever. Same goes for all other power. Alpha Sapphire? Alpha Time Walk? Forget about it. Where are you seeing this huge glut of alpha/beta? Your facebook group? That's a very small group relative to the demand. Dealers buy because they sell stuff. If they didn't they're be broke and out of business

2) and Alpha / Beta Black Lotus / Duals are collectibles. Does an alpha underground sea do the same thing as a revised one? well... not really. It's not as cool looking or impressive to own. Is that stupid? Not really. It's the exact same factor that gives value to $100,000,000 works of art, $2,000,000 Honus Wagner baseball cards and $3,000,000 comic books. You can't do ANYTHING with those items but they have value. I don't think a lot of young magic places are astute enough to understand the intricacies of high end collectibles. But Magic isn't just about young people. Plenty of older guys from 30-90 have plenty of cash and have no issue spending big cash on rare items that were a big part of gaming culture. An Alpha Lotus is impressive no matter what and people do want these cards.

 
Leeroy
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posted September 19, 2014 08:31 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Leeroy Click Here to Email Leeroy Send a private message to Leeroy Click to send Leeroy an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by oldschool:
Where are you seeing this huge glut of alpha/beta? Your facebook group?

At the moment, there are 20+ A/B power cards and 40+ A/B dual lands available just in MOTL's Trade Auctions & Sales forum. On Magic Card Market, it's 60+ and 200+.

I wouldn't call that a shortage.

 
oldschool
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posted September 19, 2014 09:19 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for oldschool Click Here to Email oldschool Send a private message to oldschool Click to send oldschool an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Leeroy:
At the moment, there are 20+ A/B power cards and 40+ A/B dual lands available just in MOTL's Trade Auctions & Sales forum. On Magic Card Market, it's 60+ and 200+.

I wouldn't call that a shortage.


tons of 52 Mantles for sale as well yet they're still $150k cards in NM condition. It's a global market. That's not a lot of stock for the tens of millions of people around the world that play magic. Also 20 power cards doesn't mean 20 Black Lotus cards. There are 9 power cards so that's only 2 or so per card. 60 power cards means 6 or so per card. That's not much at all. There are 10 dual lands and a lot of people collect them in 4s. So 20 of each is not that much between alpha and beta


[Edited 2 times, lastly by oldschool on September 19, 2014]

 
yoriagami
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posted September 19, 2014 09:57 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for yoriagami Click Here to Email yoriagami Send a private message to yoriagami Click to send yoriagami an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View yoriagami's Have/Want ListView yoriagami's Have/Want List
This is probably the most interesting T&VQ topic in a looong time.

On the one hand:
"They'll just keep going up, they always have... they are incredibly scarce and demand will forever surpass supply".

On the other hand:
"This has to stop *somewhere*. Nothing in history has ever sustained a continued 10x-better-than-inflation-rates appreciation for ever. How much do Van Goghs, Degas, Goyas, and those baseball cards mentioned cost today vs. 10 years ago (vs. 50 years ago for the paintings)?

Sure, there are only 1K (less nowadays, most likely) of every Alpha rare, 3K/less of any Beta... but every time the price increases, more and more "actual" end buyers become off-limits for this sort of stuff, and a larger percentage of the free float is hoarded by stores/larger dealers.

This is Counterbalanced (with no Sensei's Top, sadly) by an influx of demand from people who pick up the interest in Alpha/Beta duals/power and have (or obtain) the means to pursue it. So far, all historical data points to a very good ROI indeed. I regret each and every AB dual I could have bought or kept since I got back in the game in 2004. The Beta seas playset at 800$ (and later at 2000$), the 3 Beta Tundras I sold for 900$, the Scrubland I traded at 100$.

But as the prices ever grow, so does it become more the turf of investors rather than players... and it also becomes riskier as an investment. Insurance (at least over here) is tricky. Theft can only be proven if caught in the act. Counterfeiting - so far - has been detectable (or so we all believe hehe), but the Ill-Gotten Gains (no more card jokes I promise) of putting 100K$-200K$-400K$ into flawless counterfeiting become ever more alluring...

And if one day, just one day, that influx of people who pick up the interest and the means to buy AB top cards dries up, we'll see a very amusing flipside to things: a whole bunch of "high-end" stores and dealers left with a ton of cardboard that is worth jillions of dollars - but only to themselves."

( I, for one, would honestly not mind the severe depreciation my collection would take just to watch that. )

 
oldschool
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posted September 19, 2014 10:45 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for oldschool Click Here to Email oldschool Send a private message to oldschool Click to send oldschool an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by yoriagami:
[B]This is probably the most interesting T&VQ topic in a looong time.

Sure, there are only 1K (less nowadays, most likely) of every Alpha rare, 3K/less of any Beta... but every time the price increases, more and more "actual" end buyers become off-limits for this sort of stuff, and a larger percentage of the free float is hoarded by stores/larger dealers.

This is Counterbalanced (with no Sensei's Top, sadly) by an influx of demand from people who pick up the interest in Alpha/Beta duals/power and have (or obtain) the means to pursue it. So far, all historical data points to a very good ROI indeed. I regret each and every AB dual I could have bought or kept since I got back in the game in 2004. The Beta seas playset at 800$ (and later at 2000$), the 3 Beta Tundras I sold for 900$, the Scrubland I traded at 100$.

But as the prices ever grow, so does it become more the turf of investors rather than players... and it also becomes riskier as an investment. Insurance (at least over here) is tricky. Theft can only be proven if caught in the act. Counterfeiting - so far - has been detectable (or so we all believe hehe), but the Ill-Gotten Gains (no more card jokes I promise) of putting 100K$-200K$-400K$ into flawless counterfeiting become ever more alluring...

And if one day, just one day, that influx of people who pick up the interest and the means to buy AB top cards dries up, we'll see a very amusing flipside to things: a whole bunch of "high-end" stores and dealers left with a ton of cardboard that is worth jillions of dollars - but only to themselves."


this is what happens and you're right, but I think your assessment is a bit short sighted. Prices go up due to tight supply. Goes up enough so old time players that purchased this stuff for cheap are enticed to sell. Long time players and those that need cash more than cards. They sell, dealers buy and sit on them. Supply loosens up but prices are still high. The people are buy these cards at this point are no longer poor kids that need the cash. They're likely those that have no need to ever sell. So once the transfer from weak hands to strong hands is complete then the situation because much worse for new collectors.

Those that purchased an Alpha Lotus at 10k have no reason to sell at 12k or 15k or maybe even 20k. Those are people that likely don't have money issues and would rather have these rare collectibles over the cash. This will put a major strain on the market and drive prices up higher in the long run. Just like works of art and other high end collectibles. Price is often not even a question. Most art is "priceless" because billionaires rather have the art than any mount of money which just adds to the large amount of money they already have.

End result you have a huge run up, a stagnation and capitulation, maybe a small price decrease then a slow an stead run up to the highs and higher. So while these news prices are causing more and more power to hit the market, once this dries up then it's going to be tough. For every piece of power that sells at these prices now, that's more and more that are taken off the market (maybe permanently)

We might never see another huge run up like we did recently in power, but I'm willing to bet prices slowly keep going up. There is no shortage of rich people that play magic and continue to pick up the game. There are 1100 of each alpha rare. I am willing to bet there are far more than 1100 millionaires that play magic.

 
majicman
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posted September 19, 2014 10:48 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for majicman Click Here to Email majicman Send a private message to majicman Click to send majicman an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View majicman's Have/Want ListView majicman's Have/Want List
So many variables on this topic.

Some simple questions to ask would be...

What drives older Alpha/Beta cards up? Supply and Demand. The basic economic principle. There are card hoarders on this forum who own a good chunk of these cards (Deathlace, Zombie Master come to mind).

Why do people stand in lines for hours on end to get the new Iphone 6. Emotion and bragging rights. It surely isn't because people need a new phone. Marketing at its finest and temporary shortages that happen all the time Apple releases a new product. Perhaps too many sheeple that cannot stand to be without the latest new gadget?!

Why does one buy a ferrari over a prius? They both get you to your destination and the speed limit is 65 on most highways (some 70). A great company slogan used to say "Image is everything." Works for both scenarios here.

The "Reserved list"....the loved (and hated) reserved list. Those who hate it are those who don't have any of the cards and want them . Those who love it, those who own the cards and perhaps big dealers who make a living off of having large supplies of them to sell. Granted there are a few folks in the middle who wouldn't mind a printing of them, but I think those people have a lighter and dollar bills that they like to heat their homes with and also see people jump from tall buildings.

Lots of variables to consider that have been discussed many of times.

[Edited 4 times, lastly by majicman on September 19, 2014]

 
coasterdude84
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posted September 19, 2014 11:32 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for coasterdude84 Click Here to Email coasterdude84 Send a private message to coasterdude84 Click to send coasterdude84 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
There is no price ceiling for collectibles. Last year, the T206 "Jumbo" Wagner sold for $2.1 million. There are an estimated 50 copies in existence.

In baseball cards, you guys are right, very often it is just dealers passing the same cards around, but there are definitely private collectors that are still buying. That Wagner certainly didn't go to a dealer looking to flip it.


 
slurpee
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posted September 19, 2014 11:43 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for slurpee Click Here to Email slurpee Send a private message to slurpee Click to send slurpee an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View slurpee's Trade Auction or SaleView slurpee's Trade Auction or Sale
While there is no easy answer here. I will say this:

The reserved will go away at some point. Argue all you want but it will, not today, not tomorrow, not this year, but it will at some point. Most likely when MTG is on the decline or hasbro is sold to another company. Magic is not a separate company and while it makes money for hasbro, that doesn't mean that hasbro won't be merged, bought or go down the tubes.

Will magic cards go down in value at some point, yes but it will be towards the end of the game. When will the end be, no one knows, but there are people out there who still play Everquest a really ancient computer game. Look at Warcraft for those younger, the game peaked and then it is on the slow decline. Magic will be the same it is an old game, at some point something will replace it.

Counterfeits yes they will continue to enter the market, a lot of places that have mtg cards overseas are FAKE. They don't know it, nor do they probably care. Eventually they will be right, these cards are still able to be copied. Don't think for a second that a little hologram on the bottom of a card is going to stop it.

As to value of cards ask yourself in the last 10 years are there any cards over 50.00 in value? Pick any number of years since the gold symbol. There is but a very small handful of cards that have extreme value. After Tarmogoyf, you will struggle to find any nonfoil cards. The reason this is important is the same as why do counterfeiters copy hundreds and not twenties or fifties? Because they are worth more and so why would the others not copy the expensive cards. Also stores need cards to be worth something if they want to be able to pay the bills. If you back out the fetchlands in Khans, the set is terrible, heck the last groups of sets are terrible. Not saying that fetchlands is the start of MTG going to a decline and that's why they reprinted them, but ask yourself, if the fetchlands were not in the set would you buy a lot of it?

Lastly at some point card/comic stores will start to disappear. The cost of doing business goes up all the time. If cards and comics don't pay the bills they will close. Many of these shops are run by people who want to enjoy their job or never have to grow up. Not trying to be mean, but many of the shop owners struggle to pay their bills as they just want to play cards, read comics or talk to people all day. I would like to do that to, but I hear all the time about how far behind they are on some bill. When shops start to close the game will start to shrink. When the game shrinks the prices will go down. It won't matter if these shops carried power or vintage cards, if people feel the sky if falling prices will fall on everything.

It will take years for any of these things to happen, but I feel it will at some point. If you are a current player, or collector and you are concerned about prices being so high....sell all of your cards or pack them up and not look at them for years. The problem is your mindset.

You are used to a certain comfort level of price and if you take some time and then come back you can readjust to the values. People quit this game all the time and come back and end up buying in for more then they sold off for. Why because the cards went up, but they also accept that these are the prices and stop dwelling on how much you could get them for in the past.

[Edited 1 times, lastly by slurpee on September 19, 2014]

 
oldschool
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posted September 19, 2014 12:21 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for oldschool Click Here to Email oldschool Send a private message to oldschool Click to send oldschool an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by slurpee:
While there is no easy answer here. I will say this:

The reserved will go away at some point. Argue all you want but it will, not today, not tomorrow, not this year, but it will at some point. Most likely when MTG is on the decline or hasbro is sold to another company. Magic is not a separate company and while it makes money for hasbro, that doesn't mean that hasbro won't be merged, bought or go down the tubes.

Will magic cards go down in value at some point, yes but it will be towards the end of the game. When will the end be, no one knows, but there are people out there who still play Everquest a really ancient computer game. Look at Warcraft for those younger, the game peaked and then it is on the slow decline. Magic will be the same it is an old game, at some point something will replace it.

Counterfeits yes they will continue to enter the market, a lot of places that have mtg cards overseas are FAKE. They don't know it, nor do they probably care. Eventually they will be right, these cards are still able to be copied. Don't think for a second that a little hologram on the bottom of a card is going to stop it.


1) in the realm of collectibles, magic is a ZERO.. a nothing.. a blip on the radar. They've been counterfeiting artwork, collectibles, baseball cards comics since forever now. Have these collectibles died off because of it? No way, they're at record highs.

2) Magic will die... why? Chess has 16 pieces per side and has been going on for a thousand years or more. Magic has so many cards. There is no reason for magic to ever die even if Hasbro stops printing cards. Dungeons and dragons is still going strong. Is Monopoly dead? Why should Magic die??

3)The reserve list is insignificant. Do you know how many reprints there have been of Action Comics 1 or Honus Wagner or Mickey Mantle cards? Thousands. Has that hurt the value of the original? Not in the slightest. As these cards move from the hands of players to collectors, the threat of additional printings are immaterial. That stuff hurts the modern player market but it's not going to hurt the value of a graded Alpha Black Lotus

 
Nicksmagic
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posted September 19, 2014 12:55 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Nicksmagic Click Here to Email Nicksmagic Send a private message to Nicksmagic Click to send Nicksmagic an Instant MessageVisit Nicksmagic's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Nicksmagic's Have/Want ListView Nicksmagic's Have/Want List
What Slurpee said in a lot of ways is what I have been feeling. I truly felt bad when haggling at the last GP I was at because no one would budge. Some of the cards I sought out are still for sale today for the same price. I consider what the dealers told me to be valid and that they couldn't budge because then they would make no profit. But a great dealer told me once that you can't eat cardboard and in the end they have to sell to someone. Their investments are hedged by the influx of Standard/Modern sales keeping them afloat. But ultimately, who is that end customer?

Case in point. I was dealing with a shop on one of the 5 alpha Time Walks that they had. I wanted to keep my max offer at 1k for a VG/EX- version of the card. They wouldn't move price down 15% nor would they even send me scans. They listed one on Ebay and it sold for $900 about a month or two ago.

So has any collector bothered to buy these cards recently? That was my real question I guess. I know Head Umpire does in his own way collect, and I always look forward to his auctions (yes a crazy way to sell a magic card these days) but is there anyone out there who buys these kinds of cards without considering them as investments?

I always considered magic cards for my collection and have never sold a single one but it's gotten to the point now that these cards are not playable anymore. If I do forego the trip to Machu Piccu and buy the last 7 cards I want for that deck, where could I even take it to play?

 
slurpee
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posted September 19, 2014 01:18 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for slurpee Click Here to Email slurpee Send a private message to slurpee Click to send slurpee an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View slurpee's Trade Auction or SaleView slurpee's Trade Auction or Sale
1) in the realm of collectibles, magic is a ZERO.. a nothing.. a blip on the radar. They've been counterfeiting artwork, collectibles, baseball cards comics since forever now. Have these collectibles died off because of it? No way, they're at record highs. In realm of collectible, magic is a blip, but the things that are being talked about are super rare. They aren't talking about a Griffey rookie card or the death of superman. They are talking about the expensive stuff. To compare apples to apples are baseball cards still relevant, are comics that are new increasing in value, are new artists seeing their art skyrocket?? No

2) Magic will die... why? Chess has 16 pieces per side and has been going on for a thousand years or more. Magic has so many cards. There is no reason for magic to ever die even if Hasbro stops printing cards. Dungeons and dragons is still going strong. Is Monopoly dead? Why should Magic die?? Again apples to apples, Chess is not a card game, and I am sure people will laugh but so has Checkers been around a long time... Monopoly is still being produced, do people still play old ccg, like Star wars, illuminati, or any other, sure they do, but are the cards as valuable as when people played the game? NO

3)The reserve list is insignificant. Do you know how many reprints there have been of Action Comics 1 or Honus Wagner or Mickey Mantle cards? Thousands. Has that hurt the value of the original? Not in the slightest. As these cards move from the hands of players to collectors, the threat of additional printings are immaterial. That stuff hurts the modern player market but it's not going to hurt the value of a graded Alpha Black Lotus.
If duals are reprinted or power I guarantee you the price would decrease as supply has increased. People would go I don't need a 4k lotus when I can get one in a pack. The functuality is still the same. Sure a graded 9-10 is worth a lot, but the value goes down as the condition worsens. So yes a restricted list card that is reprinted would lose value.

Again I am not saying that magic is at it's end, but it will come. Heck I used to love going to GPs, releases, prereleases, not anymore...Everyone has a 600 dollar phone that people look up the value of the cards. Not saying that I tried to rip people, but these days it is like I have a 50 dollar card and they want to give me 10 5 dollar cards. If one side is in favor by more then a buck it is like the world is ending and no deal is struck. Or this pack to power junk...where the guy is looking for an idiot to trade with.

To me this is another sign as individual trading is tough, and the ones are somewhat simple are people who own some sort of shop and just didn't want to sell or get a table. To me the days of regular trading are gone.

[Edited 1 times, lastly by slurpee on September 19, 2014]

 
coasterdude84
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posted September 19, 2014 01:47 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for coasterdude84 Click Here to Email coasterdude84 Send a private message to coasterdude84 Click to send coasterdude84 an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by slurpee:
In realm of collectible, magic is a blip, but the things that are being talked about are super rare. They aren't talking about a Griffey rookie card or the death of superman. They are talking about the expensive stuff. To compare apples to apples are baseball cards still relevant, are comics that are new increasing in value, are new artists seeing their art skyrocket?? No

You're missing the key component here: time. Magic cards, baseball cards, comic books, all go up in value with time. So, of course the new cards aren't worth anything, they're still in print, so supply is plentiful. Give it 20 years, then check again.

quote:
Originally posted by slurpee:
2) Again apples to apples, Chess is not a card game, and I am sure people will laugh but so has Checkers been around a long time... Monopoly is still being produced, do people still play old ccg, like Star wars, illuminati, or any other, sure they do, but are the cards as valuable as when people played the game? NO .

What indicator do you have that Magic will cease to be played significantly anytime soon? Sure, 1000 years from now, people may not be playing Magic, so somewhere between now and then, it will die. However, I doubt it would completely collapse overnight and we're all plunged into a Great Depression of Magic. Most likely, something new would come along, and people would slowly leave the game. But with attendance at events and booster sales at record highs every year, now seems to be a pretty good time to be in the game. When things start to stagnate, then I'll worry.

quote:
Originally posted by slurpee:
3)If duals are reprinted or power I guarantee you the price would decrease as supply has increased. People would go I don't need a 4k lotus when I can get one in a pack. The functuality is still the same. Sure a graded 9-10 is worth a lot, but the value goes down as the condition worsens. So yes a restricted list card that is reprinted would lose value.

I said it in a different thread before, but if they printed a Bigger Blacker Lotus that nets you 4 at common, it wouldn't do a damn thing to the price of Alpha ones. Why? Those old cards have transcended the game. They are collectible because of what they are, not because they're good in the game. Take a Shivan Dragon for instance. What's a nonfoil 8th edition Shivan worth? My $600 phone says $0.44. Plays just as well as the Alpha one, so why is that $700? It's collectible. It's expensive because it's cool.

quote:
Originally posted by slurpee:
Again I am not saying that magic is at it's end, but it will come. Heck I used to love going to GPs, releases, prereleases, not anymore...Everyone has a 600 dollar phone that people look up the value of the cards. Not saying that I tried to rip people, but these days it is like I have a 50 dollar card and they want to give me 10 5 dollar cards. If one side is in favor by more then a buck it is like the world is ending and no deal is struck. Or this pack to power junk...where the guy is looking for an idiot to trade with.

To me this is another sign as individual trading is tough, and the ones are somewhat simple are people who own some sort of shop and just didn't want to sell or get a table. To me the days of regular trading are gone.


Sure, it's not the same. I want to slap anyone doing pack to power too, but I still trade in person. And despite the phones, I find most players are not morons and understand the concept of trading up for something they want. And no one wants to get hosed on a trade, so I have no problem with using the phones. It's different than it used to be, but it's not all bad.

[Edited 1 times, lastly by coasterdude84 on September 19, 2014]

 
Sovarius
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posted September 20, 2014 08:28 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for Sovarius Send a private message to Sovarius Click to send Sovarius an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Sovarius's Have/Want ListView Sovarius's Have/Want List
quote:
Originally posted by slurpee:
The reason this is important is the same as why do counterfeiters copy hundreds and not twenties or fifties?

I know the point you are trying to make, but they actually counterfeit 20's. You can very easily check for fake dollar bills, but people don't typically waste their time on 20's. A store or bank will not take 50's and 100's without checking them. Gas stations generally do not, period. (which may be regional)
You can counterfeit very expensive magic cards (we'll just say $100+) and try to get real cards or money in a trade with a person. This person may know about fakes, and may be more inclined to do when trading for a beta U Sea as opposed to say, Blood Baron of Vizkopa. This works differently than counterfeiting a $100 bill and trying to break it by buying candy at a store with it, as they can keep your bill and call the police right then and there, whereas some random on Craigslist meeting you at a McDonald's is less likely to get reported. And if i'm getting really technical, if i took a fake $100 to a store and they said they were keeping it and calling the police i would just plead innocent (depending on whether i knowingly faked the bill or not). If i was trying to trade my beta U Sea to a guy i met off craigslist for a bunch of real revised duals and he said "this is fake, i'm going to keep it, and then i am going to call the police" i would honestly probably hit that guy in the face twice and take my cards and leave (whether i was faking it or not, and i guess technically depending on if there is any security).

So that was a long response and i'm sorry for that, but i thought that analogy really doesn't apply the same way. Unless you are deliberately taking a fake beta U Sea to a GP and cashing out with a dealer. Otherwise, statistics will show you that 20's are most counterfeited for said reason, and the rest is just opinion of course.

quote:
Originally posted by slurpee:
If duals are reprinted or power I guarantee you the price would decrease as supply has increased. People would go I don't need a 4k lotus when I can get one in a pack. The functuality is still the same.


quote:
Originally posted by coasterdude84:
I said it in a different thread before, but if they printed a Bigger Blacker Lotus that nets you 4 at common, it wouldn't do a damn thing to the price of Alpha ones. Why? Those old cards have transcended the game. They are collectible because of what they are, not because they're good in the game.

Quoting both, saying this in response to you both.

The Black Lotus reprint example is does not apply to today's magic. Black Lotus is almost never played anywhere, ever. A Judge reprint would be worth a lot of money because it will still be an immediate collector's item, but the price would not go down just because there are more so no one is buying it to play. The collector's have the lotuses.
Bigger Blacker Lotus and Shivan Dragon are good examples an true, but relatively moot because the Lotus is not applicable to today's magic.

A better example would be the price of revised and maybe unlimited duals, if they were reprinted today in a standard legal set at rare. These are not like lotus because people need duals to play with. If they are printed in a new set, people now have replacements, an influx of cards that do the same thing. There are more players that need get the card that does the same thing (functionality) rather than the card that is lofty and revered in magic (collectible). Alpha and Beta duals would always be collectibles. Revised would tank if every player was cracking Khans for duals right now. (not saying they would be worth the same)

 
rats60
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quote:
Originally posted by coasterdude84:
There is no price ceiling for collectibles. Last year, the T206 "Jumbo" Wagner sold for $2.1 million. There are an estimated 50 copies in existence.

In baseball cards, you guys are right, very often it is just dealers passing the same cards around, but there are definitely private collectors that are still buying. That Wagner certainly didn't go to a dealer looking to flip it.


That was also the highest graded one, a 5 (not counting the "trimmed" one that is no longer on PSA's registry. There is 1-PSA 4 and 4-PSA 3 and 26 graded less. Most likely the ones not graded would be in the "trashed" category. Something that is unique is going to have no upper limit. In Magic that would be like having the highest graded Alpha set. If it would be put up for auction, the richest Magic players would bid against each other driving the price to ridiculous levels.

 
Nicksmagic
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posted September 20, 2014 05:00 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for Nicksmagic Click Here to Email Nicksmagic Send a private message to Nicksmagic Click to send Nicksmagic an Instant MessageVisit Nicksmagic's Homepage  Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View Nicksmagic's Have/Want ListView Nicksmagic's Have/Want List
Even a grade 9+ Alpha Set will likely not be worth very much in 20 years. These high end collectables like some baseball cards were not collectable when they were printed like mtg cards are. They were put between the spokes of bicycles and ridden around. On the other hand, there are grade 9+ Alpha cards still being pulled from packs right now. The word was already out that they would have some value later on down the line and people hoarded away these cards. So supply is far far greater for Alpha 9+ Black Lotus than for Honus Wagner. And demand far far less.

As demand for these does increase, so will supply. Fresh printed fake cards could be identical to those made 20 years ago. At least to current grading standards. I would not be at all surprised if graded fakes already exist.

I got my hands on my first fake Mox Sapphire in 1995. It wasn't that great but the analogy of only faking 20's doesn't apply here at all. Moxes and lotuses (especially Beta Black Lotus) have been faked hundreds of thousands of times by now. And some people are very good at making them. They won't be here on the forums telling you how they do it. But when the cards are Gem Mint and have no character themselves, unlike the Honus Wagner, the only thing that stands between you and a 9.5 beta lotus is a piece of special cardboard and the right printer.

Eventually if they go to some form of Carbon Dating or even radioactive signatures on these cards, as they do bottles of vintage wine, sure. But now, nothing but a few (thousand) bucks and a lot of guile and ingenuity are standing behind the average con artist and his 9.5 lotus.

 
oldschool
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posted September 21, 2014 07:41 AM   Click Here to See the Profile for oldschool Click Here to Email oldschool Send a private message to oldschool Click to send oldschool an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote 
quote:
Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
Even a grade 9+ Alpha Set will likely not be worth very much in 20 years. These high end collectables like some baseball cards were not collectable when they were printed like mtg cards are. They were put between the spokes of bicycles and ridden around. On the other hand, there are grade 9+ Alpha cards still being pulled from packs right now. The word was already out that they would have some value later on down the line and people hoarded away these cards. So supply is far far greater for Alpha 9+ Black Lotus than for Honus Wagner. And demand far far less.

As demand for these does increase, so will supply. Fresh printed fake cards could be identical to those made 20 years ago. At least to current grading standards. I would not be at all surprised if graded fakes already exist.

I got my hands on my first fake Mox Sapphire in 1995. It wasn't that great but the analogy of only faking 20's doesn't apply here at all. Moxes and lotuses (especially Beta Black Lotus) have been faked hundreds of thousands of times by now. And some people are very good at making them. They won't be here on the forums telling you how they do it. But when the cards are Gem Mint and have no character themselves, unlike the Honus Wagner, the only thing that stands between you and a 9.5 beta lotus is a piece of special cardboard and the right printer.

Eventually if they go to some form of Carbon Dating or even radioactive signatures on these cards, as they do bottles of vintage wine, sure. But now, nothing but a few (thousand) bucks and a lot of guile and ingenuity are standing behind the average con artist and his 9.5 lotus.



an alpha set won't be worth more in 20 years? How do you know this? Crystal ball? Your analogy about collectibles and how people didn't consider things collectible is completely false on older cards. Nobody considered magic a collectible in terms of future value. People tore up cards, destroyed them, wore them down, etc. Collectible in the sense of anything else but nobody thought these cards would ever end up what they're worth now. Sure modern cards may never be worth anything but its the same with anything else. Most comics and baseball cards will never be worth anything but the old stuff is worth something because of limited supply. How many NM alpha sets are actually even out there? It can't be many. People still pulling cards from alpha packs? LMAO. Do you know how rare an alpha pack is? Its not an unlimited supply.

Watching a few youtube videos of rich kids wasting money is not indicative of there being tons of unopened alpha around. Eventually once a handful of people have their fun opening this stuff there will be none left. You can still buy unopened packs of 1952 topps. Yet a 52 Mantle is still a 150k card in mint condition.

People need to stop bringing up counterfeits. Long before the magic market gets hit with counterfeits, other collectibles will be hit first well in advance because they're more liquid. Comics, baseball cards, antiques, art, have way larger markets than high end magic cards and until you see those crash because of counterfeits I wouldn't worry about magic.

I sense the constant theme of demeaning the value of old magic card as a proper collectible to be borderline desperation by some people to justify why they don't have these cards, no longer have them or not being able to afford them. If nobody was buying these cards they wouldn't be worth what they are. These cards sell for these prices. Look at old ebay auctions. Beat up alpha lotuses sell for 5k. I mean beat to crap. NM Lotus graded lotus sold for 30k. Beat up unlimited lotus sell for $2500. These are what these cards sell for, not just imaginary value that dealers sit on. Another thing to realize is that often dealers and collectors love having these cards as prestige and aren't in some rush or panic to sell them like other cards that go in and out of rotation. A deal might price a lotus at 4000 when its only worth 3000 because they don't really want to sell it. Big deal. If they priced it at what its worth they would sell it. You know how long a Black Lotus lasts at my local store? On average about 2-3 hours. There is huge demand for very low supply of this stuff

 
Sovarius
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quote:
Originally posted by Nicksmagic:
Even a grade 9+ Alpha Set will likely not be worth very much in 20 years.

On the other hand, there are grade 9+ Alpha cards still being pulled from packs right now.

The word was already out that they would have some value later on down the line and people hoarded away these cards.

Moxes and lotuses (especially Beta Black Lotus) have been faked hundreds of thousands of times by now.

nothing but a few (thousand) bucks and a lot of guile and ingenuity are standing behind the average con artist and his 9.5 lotus.


How do you know?

No, they are really not.

Have you seen handfuls of mint alpha cards? These were made to play. Baseballs cards were made to be collected. So best case scenario you are completely backwards.

So there is more fake power out there than real?

Why can't Honus be faked? Or any less prolific, but very expensive baseball card?

Are you a loon.

 
ogre
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posted September 21, 2014 08:20 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for ogre Click Here to Email ogre Send a private message to ogre Click to send ogre an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View ogre's Have/Want ListView ogre's Have/Want List
As long as you still have people that will play a casual game of cards w/ their friends at a beer filled dining room table or restaurant on a Saturday night, then you will still have magic cards.

Think one thing that really really needs to happen is to bring back the pre-releases and I'm not talking store pre-releases. These were, IMO, the definition of the game "Magic The Gathering", and were what made the game fun. It was always cool to go to one of these and see people that you may not have seen for a few months and have a conversation that didn't involve a text message. Once heard that the reason for abandoning these was that organizers were getting the product and selling it before the release date, to that point I'm willing to bet it's at an exponential rate now w/ stores holding the product.

As far as values are concerned, collecting is what makes the game fun and if someone wants to go and spend $$$$ on a nice beta dual then God bless them. To that I think reprinting would be extremely destructive to the game and would also destroy Hasbro's, or whichever company's who owns MTG (at the point of reprints) credibility.

.10 and hope someone that reads this is high up in WoTC/Hasbro,
Jesse

__________________
"call the hospital now"
"I'm gonna kill you"
inspiring words from Mino Fazio

 
slurpee
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posted September 21, 2014 09:36 PM   Click Here to See the Profile for slurpee Click Here to Email slurpee Send a private message to slurpee Click to send slurpee an Instant Message Edit/Delete Message Reply With Quote View slurpee's Trade Auction or SaleView slurpee's Trade Auction or Sale
People can state their case/opinion without name calling. There is no reason for it. I see name calling and lose respect. This is what gets good discussions locked
 

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