Author
|
Topic: Limited Format Discussion
|
junichi Moderator
|
posted January 03, 2012 04:05 PM
I didn't see any thread dedicated to draft/sealed discussion, and would like to have a central place where I could collect data and opinions from various MOTLer on certain issues, like pick order and such.Anyway, I came across this scenario last night, and would like to have people who are experienced in drafting to give me their opinion on this. I was drafting a burning vengeance deck, and after 2 packs, I have 2 vengeance and a handful of flashback spells. On pack 3, I opened a third vengeance and a balefire dragon. I was tempted to pick balefire dragon just because it could win games by itself, and it also gives me a second angle to win the game if somehow the burning vengeance isn't getting it done. However, I end up taking the vengeance instead, because having 3 vengeance in a 40 card deck is just insane, and I wasn't sure if it would wheel back to me. Would you have done differently? __________________ MOTL Fantasy NBA 2010 ChampionIf you don't like your job, you don't strike! You just go in every day, and do it really half assed. That's the American way. - Homer
|
WeedIan Member
|
posted January 03, 2012 04:54 PM
quote: Originally posted by junichi: I didn't see any thread dedicated to draft/sealed discussion, and would like to have a central place where I could collect data and opinions from various MOTLer on certain issues, like pick order and such.Anyway, I came across this scenario last night, and would like to have people who are experienced in drafting to give me their opinion on this. I was drafting a burning vengeance deck, and after 2 packs, I have 2 vengeance and a handful of flashback spells. On pack 3, I opened a third vengeance and a balefire dragon. I was tempted to pick balefire dragon just because it could win games by itself, and it also gives me a second angle to win the game if somehow the burning vengeance isn't getting it done. However, I end up taking the vengeance instead, because having 3 vengeance in a 40 card deck is just insane, and I wasn't sure if it would wheel back to me. Would you have done differently?
I'd probably have taken the dragon. If 2 vengeances is usually the most I've gotten so I'd rather be greedy on a bomb that wins on its own and could turn games in my favor. __________________ Member Since 03/28/2001 11000+ posts 1st in posts in Ontario 13th in posts on MOTL Top 5 in Refs in Ontario (by people who location posted)
|
caquaa Member
|
posted January 03, 2012 04:58 PM
I think the BV deck is all in if you go that route. Picking random flashback spells does you no good w/o more BV. I'd say the BV was the right choice. BV in multiples in play isn't really a bad thing...
|
rockondon Member
|
posted January 03, 2012 04:59 PM
These kind of questions depend heavily on the other cards that have been drafted but in most cases I would have taken the balefire dragon. ...for 2 reasons. 1) its awesome in draft. 2) because if you were able to draft 2 burning vengeance (and various flashback spells) from the first two packs, there's a pretty good chance that the 3rd burning vengeance would make its way to you. By the 3rd pack people should have established what their decks are gonna be, and they shouldn't be burning vengeance because you drafted those cards already. Balefire dragon is not the kind of card I would expect to make it through everybody without being picked. __________________ |My Angels~My P9 l""|"\__, |~~My #1 Angel~~l'_|'_|_|) |(@)(@)""***|(@)(@)**|(@)
|
junichi Moderator
|
posted January 03, 2012 05:13 PM
My flashback spells were average. I was running r/u/g vengeance with 3x Desperate Ravings, 2x Silent Departure, 1x Dream Twist, 2x Gnaw to the Bone, 2x Memory's Journey, and a Runic Repetition to chain Memroy's Journey. The rest of my deck are 2x Avacyn's Pilgrim, Armored Skaab, Ambush Viper, a few other creatures with a big butt to defend, and 2 Mulch to dig.quote: Originally posted by rockondon: These kind of questions depend heavily on the other cards that have been drafted but in most cases I would have taken the balefire dragon. ...for 2 reasons. 1) its awesome in draft. 2) because if you were able to draft 2 burning vengeance (and various flashback spells) from the first two packs, there's a pretty good chance that the 3rd burning vengeance would make its way to you. By the 3rd pack people should have established what their decks are gonna be, and they shouldn't be burning vengeance because you drafted those cards already. Balefire dragon is not the kind of card I would expect to make it through everybody without being picked.
If I was sure the Vengeance will be wheeled back to me, than of course, I would take the dragon, but since the first 2 Vengeance were passed to me, I wasn't sure if the other drafters would have no sense of danger and let a guy have 3 Vengeance instead of hate drafting it. Now this leads to another question, was I over thinking about being hate drafted? __________________ MOTL Fantasy NBA 2010 ChampionIf you don't like your job, you don't strike! You just go in every day, and do it really half assed. That's the American way. - Homer
[Edited 1 times, lastly by junichi on January 03, 2012]
|
MAB_Rapper Member
|
posted January 03, 2012 05:31 PM
I would have taken the Dragon. yes, the BV win concept is fine, but you need another way to win. I played this exact deck a few weeks after drafting it and it was fine, because I also had 2 Delvers and a Bloodline Keeper.__________________ MOTL's Most Likely to Play in the Pro Tour - 2007, 2008, and 2009 (My Nationals) The Official Tower Magic Facebook Page
|
FleeceItOut Member
|
posted January 03, 2012 06:03 PM
dragon
|
MTDetermine Member
|
posted January 03, 2012 06:19 PM
Curious, after choosing the 3rd BV, how did you perform in that draft? If you finish highly, then picking the 3rd BV is likely to be the right decision, from an empyrical point of view.
|
Vegas10 Member
|
posted January 03, 2012 06:58 PM
I would have taken the dragon for 2 reasons, gives you an alternate win in case you don't draw vengence or it gets destroyed, plus the BV would likley table since it is highly unlikley 2 people at the same table can draft that archtype. That beinng said going your route isn't terrible as long as your deck is solid.
|
junichi Moderator
|
posted January 03, 2012 07:43 PM
quote: Originally posted by MTDetermine: Curious, after choosing the 3rd BV, how did you perform in that draft? If you finish highly, then picking the 3rd BV is likely to be the right decision, from an empyrical point of view.
I got to round 2 game 3, with 2 burning vengeance out, 9 cards left with 5 flashback spell and a runic, I drew land land land and died in front of an army of creatures. __________________ MOTL Fantasy NBA 2010 ChampionIf you don't like your job, you don't strike! You just go in every day, and do it really half assed. That's the American way. - Homer
|
Speed Demon Banned
|
posted January 03, 2012 07:53 PM
Vengeance and then pick up flashback spells the first time around (i.e stuff like nightbird's clutchs go higher than random beater).
|
junichi Moderator
|
posted January 03, 2012 08:37 PM
quote: Originally posted by Speed Demon: Vengeance and then pick up flashback spells the first time around (i.e stuff like nightbird's clutchs go higher than random beater).
No offense, but this sounds awful.
__________________ MOTL Fantasy NBA 2010 ChampionIf you don't like your job, you don't strike! You just go in every day, and do it really half assed. That's the American way. - Homer
|
MTDetermine Member
|
posted January 03, 2012 08:43 PM
quote: Originally posted by junichi: I got to round 2 game 3, with 2 burning vengeance out, 9 cards left with 5 flashback spell and a runic, I drew land land land and died in front of an army of creatures.
Probability is 1 out of 9, multiply by 1 out of 8, multiply by 1 out of 7, which gives 0.2%. You are really out of luck for that game..... I think the suggestion of "picking the dragon as the 3rd BV will unlikely be pick by someone else" is quite sensible, particularly as the dragon is a limited bomb.
|
junichi Moderator
|
posted January 10, 2012 11:13 AM
I fired up MTGO last night and joined an 8-4. The draft was pretty awkward. I was passed an early Angel of Flight Alabaster, a pick 4 Blasphemous Act and a late Kruin Outlaw. Turns out there were 3 guys drafting mill (lol?), and a few others playing human. Apparently, there are people out there who are much worst than I do when it comes to reading and showing signals.
__________________ MOTL Fantasy NBA 2010 ChampionIf you don't like your job, you don't strike! You just go in every day, and do it really half assed. That's the American way. - Homer
|
ryan2754 Member
|
posted January 10, 2012 11:33 AM
quote: Originally posted by junichi: I fired up MTGO last night and joined an 8-4. The draft was pretty awkward. I was passed an early Angel of Flight Alabaster, a pick 4 Blasphemous Act and a late Kruin Outlaw. Turns out there were 3 guys drafting mill (lol?), and a few others playing human. Apparently, there are people out there who are much worst than I do when it comes to reading and showing signals.
Yeah, that stuff cracks me up. I was in an 8-4 and I found out I was the only one playing red (with white). 4 Bloodcrazed Neonate, 3 Brimstone Volley, 2 Rally the Peasants, 1 Fiend Hunter, 1 Hanweir Watchkeep, and 1 Balefire Dragon later, I WIN.
__________________ -Schmitty 5th in Refs [227] in OH-IO (5 behind helper monkey) 2nd in Posts [6555] in OH-IO (only 1600 behind Val) “If Brad Stevens is the future of coaching in college basketball, the sport is in a good place.” - Rick Pitino
|
NiceFaceLOL Member
|
posted January 10, 2012 11:43 AM
Bloodcrazed neonate is basically unplayable. =(Edit: Also BV, most competent players will hold their good removal and not use it on your ****ing fortress crabs, having just one sweet guy just turns it into a lightning rod for their one removal spell.
[Edited 1 times, lastly by NiceFaceLOL on January 10, 2012]
|
caquaa Member
|
posted January 10, 2012 12:34 PM
quote: Originally posted by NiceFaceLOL: Bloodcrazed neonate is basically unplayable. =(
its actually an archetype often ran with Nightbird's Clutches. Its cute.
|
Alexisonfyre Member
|
posted January 11, 2012 04:55 AM
quote: Originally posted by MTDetermine: Probability is 1 out of 9, multiply by 1 out of 8, multiply by 1 out of 7, which gives 0.2%. You are really out of luck for that game.....I think the suggestion of "picking the dragon as the 3rd BV will unlikely be pick by someone else" is quite sensible, particularly as the dragon is a limited bomb.
The good calc is (3/9)*(2/8)*(1/7) = 1/84 chance or 1,2% of drawing three lands in a row in that situation.
|
wayne Member
|
posted January 11, 2012 06:26 AM
I'm quite bored of limited, I have opponents who draw Bloodline Keeper every game while I never draw mine
|
caquaa Member
|
posted January 11, 2012 09:23 AM
quote: Originally posted by wayne: I'm quite bored of limited, I have opponents who draw Bloodline Keeper every game while I never draw mine
at least you can play it. Past two times i opened it I wasn't in black and it was pack 2 and pack 3 in separate drafts. My preference is SOM drafts. They're actually worth while. Innistrad doesn't really do it for me.
|
AlmostGrown Member
|
posted January 11, 2012 11:31 AM
Anybody have good advice for NPH-MBS-SOM limited on MODO? I haven't drafted it in forever, and when it was the draft format I didn't draft it much to begin with. IIRC, RG dinosaurs was a viable archetype. Any suggestions?
|
caquaa Member
|
posted January 12, 2012 12:25 AM
viable archtypes: (in order of power imo) b/r removal, r/w metalcraft, g/r dinos, other random colors that come together, poison decks.
|
Mr.C Member
|
posted January 12, 2012 01:23 AM
Am I the only person who likes Trepanation Blade and INquisitor's Flail? I won quite a few drafts on the back of those cards, and always got them late.
|
ryan2754 Member
|
posted January 12, 2012 03:22 PM
quote: Originally posted by Mr.C: Am I the only person who likes Trepanation Blade and INquisitor's Flail? I won quite a few drafts on the back of those cards, and always got them late.
Trepanation blade is nuts. Won everygame in limited where I've played it. Flail, not so much. The whole when a creature deals it damage, double it thing is just blah. __________________ -Schmitty 5th in Refs [227] in OH-IO (5 behind helper monkey) 2nd in Posts [6555] in OH-IO (only 1600 behind Val) “If Brad Stevens is the future of coaching in college basketball, the sport is in a good place.” - Rick Pitino
|
choco man Member
|
posted January 12, 2012 03:26 PM
quote: Originally posted by AlmostGrown: Anybody have good advice for NPH-MBS-SOM limited on MODO? I haven't drafted it in forever, and when it was the draft format I didn't draft it much to begin with. IIRC, RG dinosaurs was a viable archetype. Any suggestions?
If you can draft a fast deck around the phyr-mana guys in NPH, go for it.
| |